For Some Reason People Think Tampa Is Going To Be Good

As the season rolls around, more and more writers are starting to release their predictions for the standings in the upcoming campaign. Naturally, there have been a few constants throughout these various predictions like the division winners, and the basement 3 or 4 teams. However, one thing that has confused me as I've read these articles is this- why is everyone ranking the Tampa Bay Lightning to place in front of the New York Rangers? The Lightning made few moves of note over the off-season other than signing a few castaway defensemen that no other teams wanted, while the Rangers made one of the biggest moves of the offseason in signing prized center Brad Richards, formerly of the Dallas Stars. In order to illustrate why exactly the Rangers will place above the Lightning in the standings, I will break each team down by offense, defense, goaltending, special teams, coaching, and depth.


Offense

Your initial reaction may be to say that the Lightning boast the better offense because of Stamkos, St. Louis, and Lecavelier. However, outside of those three, the Lightning don't necessarily have the scoring depth that the Rangers have. Stamkos will probably put up between 40 and 50 goals, while Vinny and St. Louis will probably pot between 25-32. Winger Ryan Malone will also be good for 20-25, and noted agitator Steve Downie could also put up 15 o4 20. The Rangers, though, have Richards, Gaborik, Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Stepan, and Boyle. All of those players put up at least 20 goals last year, and fans can expect those numbers to improve for Gaborik as he will now be paired with Richards, who put up 77 points in 72 games last year. Callahan can also expect better numbers after scoring 10 PPG's and putting up a point per game pace once coming back from a midseason injury before finally missing the playoffs with a broken ankle. With a full season under his belt, the newly anointed captain could be expected to put in anywhere from 25-30 goals while playing on the young, improving second line of Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, and himself. Thus, though the Lightning boast the greater star power, the Rangers clearly have the greater scoring depth.

Edge goes to: neither.

Defense

The Rangers have the better defensemen. Marc Staal was an All-Star last season, and logged 25:44 on average. His defensive partner, Dan Girardi, also logged north of 20 minutes, and was among the league leaders in blocked shots. The second pairing of Ryan McDonagh and Mike Sauer will only get better with age after leading the team in +/-. The third pairing is a bit shakier, though between hot shot prospect Tim Erixon, veteran Steve Eminger, and former rookie stud Michael Del Zotto, the Rangers should be fine at the third pairing. Regardless, some are concerned with the state of the defense now that Staal is experiencing post-concussion symptoms. Nevertheless, it shouldn't be a point of concern, as the Rangers have depth in the AHL, and will most likely look to acquire another veteran defenseman, perhaps Chris Campoli, formerly of the Chicago Blackhawks. The Lightning also have some solid defenseman in former Blues' captain Eric Brewer, and rising star Victor Hedman. However, the bottom four are rounded out by Brett Clark, Pavel Kubina, Mattias Ohlund, and Marc-Andre Bergeron- not exactly the best bunch. The Lightning defense will be competent, and their personnel will most likely contribute to very strong PP numbers. However, the Rangers clearly have the better defensemen (and also have the benefit of playing in a defensively solid John Tortorella system).

Edge goes to: The Rangers.



Goaltending

You can say whatever you want about Dwayne Roloson's playoff run last season, his incredible athleticism, or his ability to split time with Mathieu Garon this season, but there is no denying that Henrik Lundqvist is better than him. I refuse to even cite specific examples as to why this is true because it is so self evident. Also, Martin Biron is a better backup than Garon is.

Edge goes to: The Rangers


Special Teams

Tampa Bay had the better powerplay and penalty kill last year statistically. The powerplay differential between the two teams was approximately 4%, with the Rangers operating at about 16.9% while the Bolts converted 20.5% of the time. This year, the Rangers can hope to bridge that gap thanks to the presence of Brad Richards, who many assume will be the unit's new quarterback. The emergence of youngsters Tim Erixon and Michael Del Zotto could also yield another point man. Regardless, Tampa Bay's powerplay will probably be better than New York's simply because its skill players are of a higher caliber, and Guy Boucher is a better coach than John Tortorella. Tampa's PK operated at a rate only .1% better than that of the Rangers, and so there's no reason to expect the two units shouldn't be equal again this year.

Edge goes to: The Lightning

Coaching

Though Torts won a Stanley Cup in Tampa, and Boucher is only a second-year coach, I don't think there's any question who the better coach is, at least right now. Tortorella is demanding, has a great record, and is a very good coach. Guy Boucher is a genius, who runs a 1-3-1 forecheck, and has some of the most unique systems and special teams plays of anyone in the league. Both teams have great coaching. But I have to give the edge to the Lightning.

Edge goes to: The Lightning


Depth

The Rangers, as explained previously, are deeper. They're also younger. The team has four players over the age of thirty: Ruslan Fedotenko, Martin Biron, Sean Avery, and Mike Rupp. The Lightning have: Vinny Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Pavel Kubina, Dwayne Roloson, Mathieu Garon, Mattias Ohlund, Eric Brewer, Brett Clark, Ryan Malone, Dominic Moore, and Adam Hall. Now there are many that would argue that that experience will benefit the Lightning and will help them place higher than the Rangers. But that's not how I see it. I see it as a sign that this team did nothing over the offseason except let its already aged team get even older. Who knows if Roloson will hold up? Who knows if Lecavalier can still put up 25 goals? Who knows if Boucher's coaching will be enough to compensate for the lack of speed in the team's defensive corps? The Rangers are deep, have one of the best goalies in the NHL, and finally have a real first line center.

Edge goes to: The Rangers

The Rangers should place higher than the Lightning if everything goes as it should. And even if it doesn't, they're still more aptly designed for playoff success. Regardless, only time will tell.