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Saturday, May 7, 2011

What's Next For the Washington Capitals?

The Capitals got swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round, making it four consecutive years without an appearance in the conference finals. Many pegged this year's Capitals to reach the land never before touched by this Washington group- they had switched to a more defensively responsible system, blocked shots, hit more, grinded, and dispatched the gritty New York Rangers in a meager five games. However, there were a few warning signs that a meltdown of these proportions would occur in the second round of these playoffs. Firstly, Tampa gained confidence in the first round by beating the stingy and deep Pittsburgh Penguins in a series that lasted seven games. Secondly, Tampa managed to do it without adding too much weight of expectation to their Cup run, a problem that more than significantly plagued the Caps' ability to perform past the first round.

Yet the problems with the Caps stemmed from a problem that was deeper than simply the matchup against the Lightning. Against the Rangers, the Capitals were labeled as "patient," "defensively oriented," and "mature." I'll tell you what it should have been- "passive," "offensively challenged," and to an extent, "scared." The Capitals were fine waiting for the Rangers in the first round because they could afford to. They are much more talented than the Rangers, and without Ryan Callahan, that became even more true. They didn't have to face adversity, and they didn't have to face an offense that would challenge their new scheme. But even with all of these things being true, it still begs the question: What exactly is wrong with the Washington Capitals? The simple answer is character.

Everyone cited the team's big losing streak in December as a turning point in the team's history. They were faced with adversity, and changed to meet it and overcome it. However, it still took them seven losses to do so. In the playoffs, all you need is four and you go home. Boudreau, at the time of the streak, addressed the team's character, asking them if they were a bunch of prima dona's that had never faced adversity before. He said, "Nobody wants someone feeling sorry for themselves." And that characterizes this group better than any other phrase. This group looks at pressure, and cracks. It wants to crack. It's easier to break under duress than to thrive. Most people would do the same thing. But most people don't get paid millions of dollars. This group simply can't win together. They don't have the collective mental fortitude. So if your the Caps, what do you do?


1. Get a Work Horse

The Blackhawks have Duncan Keith, the Los Angeles Kings have Drew Doughty, the Red Wings have Nick Lidstrom, the Predators have Shea Weber, the Rangers have Marc Staal, the Flyers have Chris Pronger etc. In the playoffs, you need a strong, gritty defenseman that is going to be able to eat up at least 25 minutes a night. Who do the Capitals have that fits that mold? Scott Hannan? He was alive before skates were made. Mike Green? He's Mike Green. John Carlson? He's 22. Jeff Schultz? No. The Capitals need to trade for (or sign) a free agent that is going to fill the hole on their roster.

2. Pick a Goalie

Pick one of the goalies and stick with him. It looks like Neuvirth's taken the reigns based on his frequency in net in the latter part of the season. If he is in fact the choice, then excellent. Trade Varlamov. He's got value on the market- don't let it go to waste. Philly needs a tender (though I think Bobrovsky is their minder of the future), as does Tampa Bay, Colorado, Edmonton, New Jersey, and arguably Columbus. The Capitals need to capitalize (punnnnnnnn) on the value that's already in the system.

3. Let the Free Agents Walk

Sorry Brooks Laich, I think you're a very good hockey player, but you need to go. You've been a Washington Capital for every year of disappointment, and I do think that you're part of the problem. Same goes for Jason Chimera, though I think that he has a year or two left on his contract. Either way, if I were the Capitals, I would be getting rid of every single player on the roster not named Alex Ovechkin or Mike Knuble. Ovie did his part this year. Now he needs a supporting cast that will match his intensity. The first part of fulfilling that burden is letting some guys walk away.

4. Sign Grittier Players and Stress that the team is now a "New Group"

Look at Tampa this year. The group is generally the same as it was last year. But add in a few new names, and a new coach, and all of a sudden the whole culture changes. Now I'm not saying that the Caps need to get a new coach. In fact, I think that Boudreau's attitude is very much congruent with the kind of grittiness that the team needs to adopt. There are plenty of free agent defensemen that will be available this off season, though I would assume that many of them like Ian White, Niclas Wallin, and Tomas Kaberle will choose to stay with their present contenders. Regardless, there are still a couple of guys that will be on the market that can beef up the Caps defensive corps (both blueliners and forwards). Guys like Jim Vandermeer and Brent Sopel can add toughness and experience to the blue line (though they won't add much speed), and a guy like the Canadiens' James Wisniewski can be a good two way defenseman that can eat up time on both special teams units. The Caps will still have to trade for that workhorse. However, they can complement their defenseman well through free agency.

On the forward side, I'd re-sign Jason Arnott because he's a good veteran to have in the locker room (although I'd definitely let Johansson take over the second pivot next year). Outside of him, let them all walk. Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, and Matt Bradley should all hit the road to make space for new blood. There are plenty of grinders that will be on the market. If I were the Caps, I'd be dipping into that pool a little bit to try and get some players with some grit. And you hate to say it, but I'd look for some players that can tend to lean towards goonery. You hate to advocate play like that, but at the end of the day, a guy like Ben Eager makes your team meaner. And you need to be mean to win in the playoffs. With that being said, I don't think that the Caps' problems are entirely in the bottom six, although in the Tampa series they were far too loose defensively. I think as much as you need to add grit and defensive capability to the bottom six, the Capitals need some middle six forwards that can score while being aggressive and focused. One player who will be a free agent next season that screams good intangibles along with concrete scoring is Carolina's Erik Cole. Now would he leave Carolina to join a divisional rival? I highly doubt it. However, it's those kind of guys that the Caps really need right now.

All in all, here's what I would do concretely.

Trade Semyon Varlamov and acquire a workhorse defenseman.
(I'm thinking Caps send Varlamov and a second rounder to the Devils for Anton Volchenkov).

Let Brooks Laich and Boyd Gordon walk, consider keeping Matt Bradley.

Target the following free agents:

Scott Hannan
Jason Arnott
Jim Vandermeer
Brent Sopel
James Wisniewski
Niclas Wallin
Ian White
Ville Leino
Freddy Sjostrom
Ben Eager
Sean Bergenheim
Adam Hall
Jeff Halpern
Patrick Eaves
Aaron Asham
Rob Niedermayer